Upgrades war predicted in Mercedes vs McLaren battle

The upgrades war is heating up in Formula 1 as former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner predicts a tight development race between championship leader Mercedes and rapidly improving McLaren. With Mercedes winning all four races in the 2026 season but McLaren showing strong pace in Miami, the title fight could hinge on which team brings better upgrades.

Why it matters:

This battle could decide the constructors' championship. Mercedes holds a lead, but McLaren's proven ability to make gains with each upgrade package keeps them in contention. In a new regulation cycle, finding performance is easier than in later years, making the development race a key factor.

The Details:

• Mercedes has been dominant, winning every race so far. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli is on a run of three consecutive victories.
• McLaren has risen from fourth to second in the pecking order after rapid improvements. Lando Norris converted sprint pole into a win in Miami, leading a team one-two.
• Red Bull and Ferrari also introduced major upgrades in Miami, but Mercedes did not. The Silver Arrows are targeting a significant package for Canada.
• Steiner on the Red Flags podcast: "I think it will be close over the whole season... It's a battle over who develops more and develops better." He noted that getting upgrades right can make a big difference now.

What's next:

Mercedes' upcoming Canada upgrade could extend their advantage, but McLaren's recent track record shows they can respond. The next few rounds will reveal which team masters the development race and gains the upper hand.

Mercedes still leads despite not upgrading in Miami, but the margin is shrinking. The team that executes its upgrade program best in the coming weeks will likely emerge as the championship favorite.