Steiner: Hamilton will retire from F1 only if he realizes he can't win the eighth title with Ferrari

Former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner has outlined the one condition under which Lewis Hamilton would finally walk away from Formula 1: accepting that a record-breaking eighth world title with Ferrari is out of reach. The seven-time champion's pursuit of that historic crown has been stalled since the controversial 2021 Abu Dhabi finale, and neither Mercedes' decline nor his first season at Maranello have yet put him back in contention.

Why it matters:

Hamilton's retirement timeline directly shapes the F1 driver market, especially at Ferrari. The 41-year-old has nothing left to prove externally, but his internal drive to win an eighth championship — particularly with the sport's most iconic team — is the only thing keeping him in the cockpit. When that belief fades, a seat opens for rising star Ollie Bearman, who is already waiting in the wings.

The details:

• Steiner's view: Speaking to a betting site, the former Haas boss said Hamilton's future hinges on his own perception of success. “At some stage, he will say he's had enough... when he realises he cannot win the eighth world championship in a Ferrari, that is when he will say, ‘I want to stop,’” Steiner explained.
• Costa's prediction: Aldo Costa, formerly Mercedes' engineering director, admits Hamilton's chances of an eighth title are now “increasingly slim.” He noted that age affects every driver eventually — Hamilton is now 41 — and only those working closely with him can judge if a decline has already begun.
• Teammate factor: Costa also highlighted that Hamilton faces an exceptionally strong teammate at Ferrari, adding pressure and making the path to success even harder.
• Recent struggles: After Mercedes lost its dominance and Red Bull and McLaren surged ahead, Hamilton's podium finishes have become rare. His switch to Ferrari has not yet reversed that trend.

What's next:

The 2026 regulation overhaul offers Hamilton one final opportunity to reset the competitive order. If Ferrari delivers a top-tier power unit — as rumored — the Briton might still have a shot at the eighth title. But if the Scuderia fails to close the gap, Steiner's prediction could become reality sooner rather than later. For now, the paddock watches closely as Hamilton's internal clock ticks.