Toto Wolff: Red Bull the biggest surprise, McLaren gaining half a second ahead of Canadian GP

Toto Wolff has identified Red Bull as the biggest surprise of the 2026 season following their remarkable recovery from being over a second off the pace to challenging at the front. The Mercedes team principal also noted McLaren's substantial progress with a major upgrade package, as the field continues to evolve rapidly under the new regulations.

Why it matters:

The development race in 2026 is proving far more volatile than expected, with teams making gains of half a second or more between races. Mercedes, despite leading the standings with Kimi Antonelli, cannot afford to rest as rivals close the gap. Wolff's assessment reveals just how quickly the competitive order can shift, setting the stage for a tense Canadian Grand Prix.

The details:

• Red Bull's resurgence: Wolff called Red Bull a "big surprise" after they went from trailing by more than a second to fighting for wins, crediting a major step forward since Miami.
• McLaren's gains: With a significant upgrade package, McLaren is expected to gain "even half a second," according to Wolff, who acknowledged the steep development curve early in the regulation cycle.
• Mercedes' own updates: The team will bring further developments to Canada, but Wolff stressed that performance will vary from race to race throughout the year.
• Internal battle: Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers' standings after three consecutive wins, while George Russell has gone two races without a podium and trails by 20 points. Wolff backed Russell to recover, calling his form a "tricky run" rather than a decline.
• Russell's response: The 28-year-old insisted he hasn't "forgotten how to drive" and remains confident, noting Antonelli is a fantastic driver but the season is still young.

What's next:

All eyes turn to the Canadian Grand Prix, where Mercedes will debut its latest upgrades. Russell won the race last year, while Antonelli claimed his first podium there. With Red Bull and McLaren closing in, the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve could provide the first real test of whether Mercedes can maintain its early dominance or if the chasing pack has truly caught up.